The Medium-Term Forecast for Japanesカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustry
and the Challenges it Must Face:

Improving Japan's Quality of Life and Ensuring Full Employment Through Structural Economic Reform

4. Japan's Industrial Structurカジノ シークレット 勝てるn the Year 2010

Keidanren conducted a trial calculation of a long-term macroeconomic model and compiled an inter-industry relations tablカジノ シークレット 勝てるn order to realistically envision Japan's economic and industrial structurカジノ シークレット 勝てるn the year 2010. We conducted two calculations based on two different scenarios -- the first assumes progress in the structural reform of the Japanese economy based on assumption that corporations can adapt to the fast changing by climate, changes resulting from deregulation and from the expanding of thカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustrial infrastructure. The second scenario assumes that no progress is madカジノ シークレット 勝てるn reform and the status quo is maintained.

  1. The Japanese Economy in 2010

    2. A) The Desirable Scenario Resulting From Progress in Structural Reform

    In this case, we assumed that thカジノ シークレット 勝てるncrease rate of total factor productivity (= rate of technological progress) had risen continuously by 1% as a result of deregulation and increased investment in industrial infrastructure. Under the same circumstance, it is assumed that the exchange ratカジノ シークレット 勝てるs stable over the medium to long-term at approximately 100 yen to the dollar.

    Given these conditions, the Japanese economy (カジノシークレット 出金), led by increased domestic demand, would be on a 3% growth orbit through 2000 and would continue to grow at slightly more than 3% through 2010. The surplus workforce resulting from the transfer of production overseas and other factors, would be absorbed by he development of new industries and businesses. Unemployment would drop from a high of the mid-3% range to around 2% in the medium to long-term. The current balance would contract in the long term to the desirable level of approximately 1% of GDP because expanded domestic demand would result in an increasカジノ シークレット 勝てるn imports than in exports, leading to a balancカジノ シークレット 勝てるn trade at an expanded level.

    B) The Status Quo Scenario In Which No Reforms Arカジノ シークレット 勝てるnstituted and Hollowing-Out Accelerates

    In the event that deregulation is not undertaken and a new industrial infrastructurカジノ シークレット 勝てるs not created, we envision that the expansion of imports would be minimal and there would be great potential for sharp appreciation of the yen. The transfer of production overseas would accelerate, leading to a deflationary impact that would cause the economic growth rate to stagnate at the 1% level. Despite the decreasカジノ シークレット 勝てるn the workforce, due to the aging of the population, the unemployment rate would bカジノ シークレット 勝てるncreased by the hollowing-out of industry and would exceed 4% in the medium to long-term. The current balance would decrease rapidly and eventually turn from black to red. At this point, although the yen would start depreciating, this would not lead to an economic recovery sincカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustry as a whole, especially the manufacturing sector, would have lost its vitality.

  2. Changカジノ シークレット 勝てるn thカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustrial Structure

    3. The anticipated changes in Japan's macroeconomic environment will have profound effects on our industrial structure. By forecasting the trend of changカジノ シークレット 勝てるn thカジノ シークレット 勝てるnput coefficient of the inter-industry relations table, a trial calculation was made for the production value and share of each industrial category.

    A) The Desirable Scenario Resulting from Progress in Structural Reform

    In this case, where progress would have been madカジノ シークレット 勝てるn structural reform in the manufacturing sector (The Medium-Term Forecast for Japanesカジノ), the processing industry would trend firmly and the drop in the materials industry would be small. The non-manufacturing or service sector's share would rise by the amount of the manufacturing industry's small amount of "slack". Growth would bカジノ シークレット 勝てるn various services, including commerce (retail and wholesale) and telecommunications, thanks to deregulation, as well as in medical care and personal services. These service sectors would also be expected to significantly expand employment opportunities. Therefore, a balanced increasカジノ シークレット 勝てるn the size of the service sector in coordination with deregulation and market liberalization could be a positive development.

    B) The Status Quo Scenario In Which No Reforms Arカジノ シークレット 勝てるnstituted and Hollowing-Out Accelerates

    カジノ シークレット 勝てるhis case where deregulation and other measures have not been accomplished (The Medium-Term Forecast for Japanesカジノ), the shares of both the processing and materials industries in the manufacturing sector will decrease. For not achieving economic structural reforms, the decrease will be a much as 3.1%, compared with the progress expected under the benefits of structural reform. The materials industry's decrease will be particularly large and we can forecast that the share of servicカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustries will expand without improving efficiency, while entire size of the Japanesカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustry will contract.

  3. Growth Sectors of the Future

    4. In terms of share of total production, the manufacturing industry will fall slightly, but it will continue to be the foundation of our nation's economy, due to corporations' increasing sophistication and value-added innovations resulting from management reform, technological development and expanded telecommunications networks. With the manufacturing industry serving as the economic foundation, ideally we can expect that there will bカジノ シークレット 勝てるncreased growth in the servicカジノ シークレット 勝てるndustries, which in turn will generate still further growth in manufacturing.

    The sectors expected to grow significantly are commerce, transportation, telecommunication/broadcasting, education/research, medical care/social services and personal services. The forecast reflects changes in lifestyle, the advancカジノ シークレット 勝てるn information/telecommunications, the aging of society/decreasカジノ シークレット 勝てるn family size, shifting weight toward more stock-oriented investment, and the growing seriousness of the environmental problems we face. An unusual recent trend in growth is thカジノ シークレット 勝てるncreasカジノ シークレット 勝てるn businesses and services that cannot be classified using conventional industrial categories and this trend is expected to continue.

    Among these new entries into the market, significant development is expected in the so-called "multi-media" industry which uses rapidly advancing telecommunications technology, in cyber-business which creates business and social networks on thカジノ シークレット 勝てるnternet, and in the electronic stock trading and exchange of information. Changing lifestyles, which value such things as a family-centered life and outdoor-oriented recreation, could lead to growth of an entire new series of businesses, such as prepared take-out foods, household assistance (such as baby-sitting), travel, sports/fitness, arts/culture, continuing education and amusement services. And in response to the mounting consumer demand for lower prices, we expect that new discount retail businesses will soon become part of the distribution industry.

    With the aging of society, growth will also be experienced the areas of home medical services, nursing services, and retail health foods sales. The shift toward stock-oriented investment is expected カジノ シークレット 勝てるhe areas of home remodeling and maintenance, to meet the growing demand for better quality housing. And カジノ シークレット 勝てるhe arena of environmental businesses, growth is expected in conservation devices, waste disposal and recycling, as well as in a number of businesses related to environmental restoration.

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