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Figure 5: Structural reform options
(estimates based on use of macro-econometric model)

Case 1: No expenditure review. All eventualities catered for by increasing burden.

Nature of reform (implementation assumed to start in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック02 in each case) National and local government expenditure Expenditure (excl. portion of social security financed out of public funds) growth roughly equal to nominal economic growth rate Consumption tax rate increased from 5% to 25.5% Social security Basic pension benefits indexed to wages. Benefits associated with the earnings-related component kept in line with current practice (confined to approx. 5%) Proportion of basic pension paid by treasury raised to 50% Employees' pension insurance premium rate raised カジノシークレットキャッシュバックtages to 34.5% Per capita medical expenses raised nominal 4% Y/Y 50% of medical treatment for the aged financed out of public funds, 10% as out-of-pocket expenses Medical insurance burden increased to 1.4 fold, assuming no change in present system

Economic growth rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック00-カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

Real 1.7%
Nominal 3.5%

Central and local government finances Fiscal balance Turns positive in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25 Outstanding debt/GDP ratio Approx. 58% in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25

Social security funds Pension reserve ¥ 239 trillion (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25) Medical treatment Balance more or less in equilibrium

National burden rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

71.80%

Breakdown:: Tax burden: 46.0%
Social security burden: 25.7%

Case 2: Only national and local government expenditure kept in check

Nature of reform (implementation assumed to start in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック02 in each case) National and local government expenditure Public works cut by nominal 3% Y/Y until カジノシークレットキャッシュバック11. From カジノシークレットキャッシュバック12 onwards, they are held steady in real value Non-public works (excluding portion paid out of public share of social security burden) held steady in nominal value until カジノシークレットキャッシュバック11 and in real value from カジノシークレットキャッシュバック12 onwards Consumption tax rate increased from 5% to 14.5% Social security Employees' pension insurance premium rate raised カジノシークレットキャッシュバックtages to 33.5% Medical insurance burden increased to 1.3 fold, assuming no change in present system Everything else as per Case 1

Economic growth rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック00-カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

Real 1.8%
Nominal 3.5%

Central and local government finances Fiscal balance Turns positive in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック23 Outstanding debt/GDP ratio Approx. 72% in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25

Social security funds Pension reserve ¥ 211 trillion (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25) Medical treatment Balance more or less in equilibrium

National burden rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

59.80%

Breakdown:: Tax burden: 35.3%
Social security burden: 24.5%

Case 3: All expenditure, including social security, reviewed

Nature of reform (implementation assumed to start in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック02 in each case) Expenditure held in check (as per Case 2) Consumption tax rate increased from 5% to 10% Social security Basic pension benefits indexed to prices only. Earnings-related component reduced (Past and future components reduced to 24% and 40% respectively) Proportion of basic pension paid by treasury raised to 50% Employees' pension insurance premium rate raised to 19.5% Rise in per capita medical expenses confined to nominal 3% Y/Y 50% of medical treatment for the aged financed out of public funds; out-of-pocket expenses raised to 20% Medical insurance burden reduced to 85% of current level, assuming no change in present system

Economic growth rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック00-カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

Real 2.4%
Nominal 4.2%

Central and local government finances Fiscal balance Turns positive in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック24 Outstanding debt/GDP ratio Approx. 76% in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25

Social security funds Pension reserve ¥ 210 trillion (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25) Medical treatment Balance more or less in equilibrium

National burden rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

46.50%

Breakdown:: Tax burden: 31.5%
Social security burden: 15.0%

Case 4: Portion of social security financed out of public funds raised

Nature of reform (implementation assumed to start in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック02 in each case) Expenditure held in check (as per Case 2) Consumption tax rate increased from 5% to 15.8% Social security Whole of basic pension funded by the treasury. Medical treatment for the aged and long-term care (excl. out-of-pocket expenses) funded in their entirety out of public funds. Employees' pension insurance premium rate reduced to 14.5% Medical insurance burden reduced to 63% of current level, assuming no change in present system Everything else as per Case 3

Economic growth rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック00-カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

Real 2.7%
Nominal 4.8%

Social security funds Pension reserve ¥ 209 trillion (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25) Medical treatment Balance more or less in equilibrium

National burden rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

46.30%

Breakdown:: Tax burden: 36.3%
Social security burden: 10.0%

Case 5: Fiscal reconstruction implemented at earliest possible date

Nature of reform (implementation assumed to start in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック02 in each case) Expenditure held in check (as per Case 2) Consumption tax rate increased from 5% to 17.5% Social security Employees' pension insurance premium rate raised カジノシークレットキャッシュバックtages to 33.5% Medical insurance burden same as today, assuming no change in present system Everything else as per Case 3

Economic growth rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック00-カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

Real 1.9%
Nominal 3.6%

Central and local government finances Fiscal balance Turns positive in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック12 Outstanding debt/GDP ratio Approx. 9% in カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25

Social security funds Pension reserve ¥ 807 trillion (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25) Medical treatment Balance more or less in equilibrium

National burden rate (カジノシークレットキャッシュバック25)

61.30%

Breakdown:: Tax burden: 37.2%
Social security burden: 24.1%

カジノシークレット勝てる Keidanren

Figure 5: Structural reform options (estimates based on use of macro-econometric model)

Figure 5: Structural reform options
(estimates based on use of macro-econometric model)