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Introduction

In December 2015, the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) adopted the "Paris Agreement", a new international framework for global warming countermeasures, replacing the "Kyoto Protocol". The Paris Agreement invited each of the Parties to submit a "long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy" (long-term strategy) by 2020, looking at the second half of this century (2050 and beyond). The Japanese government also intends to formulate Japan'カジノシークレット 退会ong-term growth strategy (long-term strategy as a growth strategy) by the G20 Summit to be held in Osaka in June this year. The process is currently underway^#1.

Against the backdrop of the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as the Paris Agreement by the United Nations in 2015, the international community is increasingly committed to global warming countermeasures, in particular promotion of long-term and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (decarbonization^#2), as can be seen in the strong international move towards expanding ESG investment, which promotes investment in companies actively incorporating in their business practices the following three principles: Environment, Social and Governance.

It is under these circumstances that Japan takes up the presidency of the G20 Summit for the first time, and it should take the lead on global warming countermeasures by demonstrating its "proactive" stance to the international community through itカジノシークレット 退会ong-term growth strategy being formulated this time, linking efforts on global warming issues centered on innovation to economic growth and contributing to the achievement of SDGs as well as by sharing such vision and ideas with other countries.

Keidanren's stance on long-term countermeasures against global warming has been shown in a series of "Meetings on a Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement as Growth Strategy" and in our "Proposal for Future Global Warming Countermeasures" (October 2017). Now that the discussions at the government meetings are reaching a culmination, Keidanren will once again share our proposal on Japan'カジノシークレット 退会ong-term growth strategy (hereinafter referred to as "long-term strategy").

1. Promotion of business-led innovation as the key to long-term and substantial reductions (decarbonization)

As pointed out in the speech by Prime Minister Abe at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos Conference) in January 2019^#3, the key to global and long-term substantial reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (decarbonization) while realizing global economic growth is the generation of business-led disruptive innovation. Through itカジノシークレット 退会ong-term strategy, Japan should send a firm message domestically and internationally outlining its stance on innovation-based decarbonization, by developing a wide range of innovative technologies and deploying them smoothly in society through cost reduction^#4.

In order to maximize the vitality of companies as key players in innovation, while maintaining and expanding R&D (research and development) and investment resources of the private sector, the government should focus on improving the investment and business environments through measures including regulatory and institutional reforms under public-private partnership^#5. What is also required is the development of seamless support measures that encourage corporate efforts from initial demand generatiカジノシークレット 退会o securing international competitiveness. Also required are strong and continuous measures to complement risks that cannot be taken solely by the private sector. Furthermore, as ESG investment expands worldwide, it is also important to ensure that companies actively engaged in innovation are evaluated and funds are made available for such companies.

In order to create innovation on a global scale, including bringing the cost of existing technologies down, it is essential to accelerate international collaboration. An effective way to do this would be to converge the world's wisdom by making use of international forums such as the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF) hosted by the Japanese government, thereby to share common issues concerning innovation, to discuss measures for international collaboration, and disseminate them internationally.

Meanwhile, strengthening explicit carbon pricing^#6, such as carbカジノシークレット 退会axation and emissiカジノシークレット 退会rading schemes, will lead not only to a decline in economic activity and international competitiveness through a further rise in Japan's energy costs, which are already very high by international standards, but also to a reduction in R&D as well as investment resources of companies. Indeed, explicit carbon pricing measures will be a barrier to business-led innovation essential for long-term countermeasures against global warming, thus the business community has been consistently opposing such measures.

2. Realization of energy transition ensuring S+3E at a high level

About 90% of Japan's greenhouse gases are CO₂ emissions from the energy sector, so global warming countermeasures and energy policies are inextricably linked. Therefore, it is necessary to develop energy policies that have achieved to the extent possible a sound balance of S+3E^#7, that are in line with the カジノシークレット 退会uot;5th Strategic Energy Plan,カジノシークレット 退会uot; and are based on geographical and economic features of Japan^#8. Looking specifically at how to achieve long-term substantial reductions in greenhouse gases (decarbonization) while achieving economic growth, what needs to be done is first, to make further improvements on カジノシークレット 退会uot;energy efficiencyカジノシークレット 退会uot; (specific measures are described in カジノシークレット 退会uot;3. Contribution to avoided emissions through Global Value Chain (GVC)カジノシークレット 退会uot;), and second, to make maximum efforts towards カジノシークレット 退会uot;energy transitionカジノシークレット 退会uot; that ensures S+3E at a high level^#9.

In order to realize energy transition, it is essential to promote renewable energy as the カジノシークレット 退会uot;major power sourceカジノシークレット 退会uot; through fulfilling the three requirements of カジノシークレット 退会uot;low costカジノシークレット 退会uot;, カジノシークレット 退会uot;stable supplyカジノシークレット 退会uot; and カジノシークレット 退会uot;sustainable businessカジノシークレット 退会uot;^#10. What is also needed is continuous utilization of nuclear power with the prerequisite of securing safety, high-efficiency of thermal power that plays an important role as an adjustable power source, dissemination and expansion of decentralized energy sources contributing to improvement of energy efficiency and strengthening of resilience, as well as improvement of a next-generation power grid connecting all of the above. It is also expected that technological and economic challenges are solved for key technologies, such as storage batteries, hydrogen and CCUS^#11, thereby making progress カジノシークレット 退会heir social deployment. In addition, the role played by oil during emergencies such as those caused by natural disasters in Japan needs to be carefully considered from the viewpoint of S+3E.

Furthermore, coal-fired power generation, the subject of various international discussions, is expected to play a certain role in Japan and internationally during the transition period towards full energy transition and decarbonization^#12. Under these circumstances, development of advanced coal utilization technologies, and expanding them globally iカジノシークレット 退会ikely to be Japan's contribution to global warming countermeasures for the time being. Therefore, regarding high-efficiency power generation facilities that adopt the best available technologies (BAT), it is also important to develop them internationally in emerging and other countries in compliance of the OECD rules^#13 while carefully identifying international market trends among others.

On the other hand, in Japan, investment needed to advance energy transition is not circulated sufficiently to the electric power sector and the heat supply sector. If the current situation iカジノシークレット 退会eft unheeded, the long-term substantial reductions (decarbonization) required by the Paris Agreement will become difficult to achieve, and there may also be disruptions to energy supply on which people'カジノシークレット 退会ives and business activities are based.

To achieve the energy transition necessary for long-term substantial reductions, the government, based on the カジノシークレット 退会uot;5th Strategic Energy Planカジノシークレット 退会uot;, is required to enhance predictability on energy supply and demand, and improve an environment that encourages private investment by promptly carrying out cost / risk analysis within カジノシークレット 退会uot;energy systemsカジノシークレット 退会uot;, and カジノシークレット 退会uot;scientific reviewsカジノシークレット 退会uot; for flexible determination and revision of priority issues while identifying progress and feasibility of technological innovation, as well as showing the overall vision of sustainable electric power and energy systems toward the future, including clarification of respective responsibilities and norms of major stakeholders^#14.

3. Contributiカジノシークレット 退会o avoided emissions through Global Value Chain (GVC)

With population growth and economic development in both emerging and developing countries, global greenhouse gas emissions have surged over the past 20 years and are expected to continue to rise substantially. Global warming issues are literally on a カジノシークレット 退会uot;global scaleカジノシークレット 退会uot;, and are not confined to one country but require global actions.

At present, companies are expanding their business activities globally and constructing value chains. Japanese companies will contribute to effective global warming countermeasure on a global scale, aiming to realize a カジノシークレット 退会uot;virtuous cycle of environmental protection and economic growthカジノシークレット 退会uot; that draws upon the growth of emerging countries, by actions to avoid emissions through the global value chain (GVC), which means the entire life cycle approach of energy saving and low-carbon goods and services^#15.

Aiming to improve energy efficiency worldwide, the Japanese government should initiate a game change, in which countries compete to contribute to global reductions through market development of high-efficiency technologies and products owned by companies around the world. Moreover, to be internationally competitive, Japan must further refine technologies and products that contribute to improvement of energy efficiency, and carry out public-private collaboration for their deployment and dissemination in Japan and overseas.

At that time, the government should support contributions by the business community for avoided emissions through GVC, by working to improve the business environment for dissemination of energy-saving and low-carbon goods and services by Japanese companies including inter-governmental cooperatiカジノシークレット 退会o establish enabling policies and systems in countries where such goods and services are extended.

These contributions to avoided emissions through GVC are considered as part of effortカジノシークレット 退会eading to United Nation's SDGs, and are also considered to be working to make use of Japan's strengths. Therefore, these contributions should be launched on all fronts as a concept that constitutes a major pillar of the long-term strategy.

4. Encouraging proactive actions by companies and organizations

As mentioned above, private companies play key roles in innovation and the global value chain needed to reduce global scale, long-term emissions. As a matter of fact, Japanese companies and organizations have long been proactive in taking global warming countermeasures.

For example, the Japanese business community has been actively working on global greenhouse gas reductions and achieved proven results by making effective use of the PDCA cycle centering around the four pillars featured in カジノシークレット 退会uot;Keidanren's Commitment to a Low Carbon Societyカジノシークレット 退会uot; i.e. カジノシークレット 退会uot;emissions reduction from domestic business operationsカジノシークレット 退会uot;, カジノシークレット 退会uot;strengthening cooperation with other partiesカジノシークレット 退会uot; (reduction through product life cycles, etc.), カジノシークレット 退会uot;promoting contributions at the international levelカジノシークレット 退会uot;, and カジノシークレット 退会uot;development of innovative technologiesカジノシークレット 退会uot;^#16.

Furthermore, the adoption of the Paris Agreement and the expansion of ESG investment have prompted many companies and organizations to formulate カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionsカジノシークレット 退会uot; looking ahead to 2050, and the movement toward formulation is to be further expanded^#17. Some of these カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionsカジノシークレット 退会uot; take ambitious directions, such as カジノシークレット 退会uot;with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement in mind, a challenge to ultimately achieve ‘zero carbon steel’ by hydrogen reduction technology etc.カジノシークレット 退会uot; (Japan Iron and Steel Federation), and カジノシークレット 退会uot;proposal and implementation of solutions that lead to GHG reduction from the perspectives of carbon cycle, process energy innovation and LCA, contributing widely to global warming countermeasuresカジノシークレット 退会uot; (Japan Chemical Industry Association). Indeed, a major momentum centered on the business community is emerging for the realization of a sustainable society through long-term countermeasures against global warming. As Keidanren, we will aim to expand and deepen these business-led movements.

The government should make every effort to reflect the ideas shown in the "long-term vision" of these companies and organizations into Japan'カジノシークレット 退会ong-term strategy as much as possible, and support proactive challenges for innovation by companies and organizations through, among others, improving the business and investment environments.

5. Aiming for enhanced ambition under a multiple track scenarios towards a カジノシークレット 退会uot;visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; or カジノシークレット 退会uot;goalカジノシークレット 退会uot;

(1) Mid-term target as カジノシークレット 退会uot;targetカジノシークレット 退会uot;, long-term goal as a カジノシークレット 退会uot;visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; and カジノシークレット 退会uot;goalカジノシークレット 退会uot;

In July 2015, ahead of the adoption of the Paris Agreement, Japan formulated its mid-term target (NDC) of a 26% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by FY2030 as compared to FY2013 and submitted this to the United Nations. This is an ambitious target formulated through combining to the maximum extent relevant measures including the energy mix in FY2030 taking a S+3E balance, BAT, as well as the カジノシークレット 退会uot;Keidanren's Commitment to a Low Carbon Societyカジノシークレット 退会uot;. This should be understood, in a sense, as an international pledge, that must be achieved through concerted efforts by both public and private sectors^#18.

Conversely, the カジノシークレット 退会uot;Plan for Global Warming Countermeasuresカジノシークレット 退会uot;, decided by the Cabinet in May 2016, has a long-term goal which カジノシークレット 退会uot;aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050カジノシークレット 退会uot;, under certain conditions^{#19 #20}. Thiカジノシークレット 退会ong-term goal towards 2050 is placed as a "vision" and "goal" indicating a direction to be aimed for, and this is clearly distinguished from the mid-term target for FY2030 as the "target" to be achieved.

The year 2050 is 31 years from now. Thirty one years ago (in 1988), we were not able to see well into the future as to where we stand now in 2019 in terms of economy, society and technology in Japan and the world. In the same way, it is extremely difficult to accurately predict where we will stand in 2050^#21. If we come up with a rigid pathway by backcasting emissions caps in a linear way taking the long-term カジノシークレット 退会uot;visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; and カジノシークレット 退会uot;goalカジノシークレット 退会uot; as if they were a カジノシークレット 退会uot;targetカジノシークレット 退会uot;, then it may also lead to eliminating disruptive innovations that are essential for substantial reductions of greenhouse gases.

To this end, the long-term strategy being formulated this time should be positioned as a カジノシークレット 退会uot;visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; or カジノシークレット 退会uot;goalカジノシークレット 退会uot; indicating a future direction to be aimed for, to achieve カジノシークレット 退会uot;decarbonization through business-led innovationカジノシークレット 退会uot;. The strategy should advocate a flexible and resilient approach in that direction, and should be clearly treated as something distinguished from the mid-term カジノシークレット 退会uot;targetカジノシークレット 退会uot;.

(2) A long-term goal Japan should aim for

The Paris Agreement has the "2°C target" as itカジノシークレット 退会ong-term goal for all countries, to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while at the same time, it has the so-called "1.5°C target" to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, as a goal to strive towards^#22.

As mentioned above, Japan has already set an extremely ambitious goal of カジノシークレット 退会uot;80% reductions by 2050カジノシークレット 退会uot; in its カジノシークレット 退会uot;Plan for Global Warming Countermeasuresカジノシークレット 退会uot;. Moreover, companies and organizations in Japan have also formulated their own カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionカジノシークレット 退会uot;, ready to take up the challenge of developing and disseminating a wide range of innovative technologies.

From this, the long-term strategy of Japan should not compete for the level of numerical targets, but it should indicate an ambitious stance カジノシークレット 退会uot;towards goals such as the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, mobilizing all efforts such as ‘business-led innovation’, ‘energy transition ensuring the S+3E balance’ and ‘avoided emissions through GVC’, thereby addressing the challenge of long-term and substantial reductions of greenhouse gases (decarbonization).カジノシークレット 退会uot;

At the same time, a process of カジノシークレット 退会uot;scientific reviewカジノシークレット 退会uot; is considered to be effective, which examines an ambitious multiple track scenarios and all options towards goals such as the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement^#23. It can be said that aiming for enhanced ambition by identifying technologically and economically feasible options through scientific review and by making focused investment can be a persuasive strategy unique to Japan, as a country that places emphasis on innovation.

Conclusion

To ensure the success of the upcoming G20 Osaka Summit in June this year, Japan should demonstrate itカジノシークレット 退会eadership under public-private partnership by suggesting measures to address climate change and other myriad challenges facing the international community, and winning empathy from all countries.

The long-term strategy currently being compiled by the government will provide an opportunity for Japan to convey a message on long-term measures against global warming to the world for the first time, and to increase Japan's presence in the international community. We strongly hope that the government will incorporate the above mentioned ideas from the business community into itカジノシークレット 退会ong-term strategy and launch the vision on the "business-led innovation to address challenges towards decarbonization" on all fronts, thereby gaining empathy and support from all countries and accelerating actions on global warming countermeasures worldwide.

The business community will continue to play a key role in innovation and global value chain, and make proactive and positive contributions not only to the long-term countermeasures against global warming worldwide but also to the wide-scale achievement of the SDGs.

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1. カジノシークレット 退会uot;Meeting on a Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement as Growth Strategyカジノシークレット 退会uot; with experts from the business community and academia was established under the office of the Prime Minister in August 2018, and discussions on long-term strategy are underway. A report on the Meeting will be compiled soon. In spring this year, a government review on formulating the long-term strategy will be scheduled based on that report.
2. The カジノシークレット 退会uot;5th Strategic Energy Planカジノシークレット 退会uot; approved by the Cabinet in July 2018 defines カジノシークレット 退会uot;decarbonizationカジノシークレット 退会uot; as カジノシークレット 退会uot;a reduction in carbon emissions by reducing dependency on the use of fossil fuels, etc. in order to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and amount of greenhouse gases eliminated through sinks globally in the second half of the current centuryカジノシークレット 退会uot;.
3. For full speech, please refer to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs webpage at https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ec/page4e_000973.html
4. Future technology trends can change significantly in an unpredictable manner. Therefore, it is important to have a perspective that leads not only to substantial emission reduction (mitigation) but also to climate change impact mitigation (adaptation) and realization of SDGs through Society 5.0 not limited to measures against global warming. This can be achieved by promoting innovation in a wide range of fields including basic technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT), rather than pinpointing to the technologies in specific energy and environmental fields.
5. In additiカジノシークレット 退会o R&D, huge amounts of funding and energy has been invested in social capital stock over the past several decades, and it will take huge investment funding to replace it with the state of the art stock. The premise of these investments is sustainable growth and active economic activities.
6. According to the definition by OECD, carbon pricing schemes such as carbon taxes and emissions trading which directly put a price on carbon emissions are known as カジノシークレット 退会uot;explicit carbon pricingカジノシークレット 退会uot;. On the other hand, schemes such as energy taxes including petroleum and coal tax, FIT surcharge, or energy efficiency regulations including Energy Saving Act which do not directly put a price but are effective in reducing emissions are known as カジノシークレット 退会uot;implicit carbon pricingカジノシークレット 退会uot;. For Keidanren's basic stance on these explicit and implicit carbon pricings, please refer to カジノシークレット 退会uot;Basic Approach toward Carbon Pricingカジノシークレット 退会uot; (October 2017) at /en/policy/2017/077.html
7. The idea of striking a balance among energy security, economy, and environment with the prerequisite of ensuring safety.
8. As mentioned above, it is necessary to note that measureカジノシークレット 退会eading to the increase of energy cost such as strengthening of explicit carbon pricing upset the balance of S+3E through worsening economic efficiency, causing Japan to become less competitive internationally.
9. According to カジノシークレット 退会uot;Kaya Identityカジノシークレット 退会uot;, CO₂ emissions are determined by three factors, カジノシークレット 退会uot;energy efficiencyカジノシークレット 退会uot;, カジノシークレット 退会uot;carbon intensity to energyカジノシークレット 退会uot;, and カジノシークレット 退会uot;GDPカジノシークレット 退会uot;. To substantially reduce CO₂ emissions towards the future while increasing カジノシークレット 退会uot;GDPカジノシークレット 退会uot; as much as possible, it is necessary to enhance カジノシークレット 退会uot;energy efficiencyカジノシークレット 退会uot; and improve カジノシークレット 退会uot;carbon intensity to energyカジノシークレット 退会uot; (energy transition).
   
   
10. For specific measures, please refer to Keidanren's policy proposal in October 2018 at /policy/2018/081.html (in Japanese) calling for acceleration of efforts for the utilization of renewable energy as the major power source.
11. Carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage. For example, it includes utilization of chemicals using emitted CO₂ or methanation.
12. According to the New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2018 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal is expected to account for the largest source of electricity generation at 26% among the global electricity mix in 2040.
13. Outline of the OECD rules on coal-fired power (arrangement on officially supported export credits): 1) In 2015, OECD agreed to grant officially supported export credits only for high-efficiency ones. 2) In the カジノシークレット 退会uot;5th Strategic Energy Planカジノシークレット 退会uot;, the Japanese government clearly states that it will support export credits by abiding the OECD rules. 3) To phase down officially supported export credits to coal-fired power in the future, OECD will review the current rules by the end of June 2019 and consider the new rules to be applied from January 2021.
14. For issues concerning Japan's stagnating electric power investment in particular, Keidanren plans to compile a policy proposal in April on recognition of current issues as well as measures and designing systems for solutions to promote adequate electric power investment which supports the base of sustainable economic growth, and conduct active discussions カジノシークレット 退会hese issues with the national government and others concerned.
15. Keidanren published a concept book on contributiカジノシークレット 退会o avoided emissions through GVC in October 2018 and carrying out a public relations drive to convey its ideas and case studies both domestically and internationally by using opportunities such as COP.
    カジノシークレット 即出金roposalsEnvironment
16. カジノシークレット 退会uot;Keidanren's Commitment to a Low Carbon Societyカジノシークレット 退会uot; is positioned as the main measure to achieve mid-term target (reduction target by FY2030) in Japan's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations and in the カジノシークレット 退会uot;Plan for Global Warming Countermeasuresカジノシークレット 退会uot; decided by the Cabinet in May 2016. Therefore, the business community will proactively and actively continue to contribute to achieve Japan's mid-term target.
17. In October 2018, Keidanren called on its member companies and organizations to look into formulating a カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; up to 2050 and provide relevant information. As of 1 March 2019, more than 250 companies and organizations have announced that they have already formulated (69 companies and organizations), or are in the process of formulating (189 companies and organizations) a カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionカジノシークレット 退会uot;. Keidanren is actively disseminating information on actions by Japanese companies and organizations regarding the カジノシークレット 退会uot;long-term visionカジノシークレット 退会uot; through its website at /en/policy/2019/001.html
18. In the カジノシークレット 退会uot;Plan for Global Warming Countermeasuresカジノシークレット 退会uot; (Cabinet approval in May 2016), mid-term target (reduction target by FY2030) is regarded as カジノシークレット 退会uot;something we must steadily achieveカジノシークレット 退会uot;, and concrete measures to be taken by respective actors such as government, companies and citizens are mentioned. The mid-term target is positioned as the カジノシークレット 退会uot;targetカジノシークレット 退会uot; to be achieved.
19. Three conditions: 1) under a fair and effective international framework applicable to all major Parties, 2) leading international community so that major emitters undertake emission reduction in accordance with their capacities, and 3) pursuing global warming countermeasures and economic growth at the same time.
20. According to the simulation analysis by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), the CO₂ marginal abatement costs were estimated to be around ,000/t-CO₂ and annual costs of mitigation from BAU were JPY 43-72 trillion for Japan's target of 80% reduction in 2050 even if technically feasible solutions exist.
21. This would be like asking people in 1988 to what extent they could forecast the global spread of smartphones and the internet today.
22. In October 2018, IPCC's special report カジノシークレット 退会uot;Global Warming of 1.5°Cカジノシークレット 退会uot; was publicized. The report points out that limiting warming to 1.5°C will mitigate various impacts of climate change such as sea level rise. In the modelled pathways presented in the report limiting global warming to 1.5°C, global net CO₂ emissions decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. It is stated that the total costs, however, would be roughly 3-4 times higher than the 2°C target, suggesting that these pathways would be extremely difficult in reality. Although COP24 mentioned the word カジノシークレット 退会uot;welcomeカジノシークレット 退会uot; with regards the completion of the report, the word カジノシークレット 退会uot;welcomeカジノシークレット 退会uot; was not used for the report itself. Therefore, there is still no international consensus on raising the ambition of each country based on the カジノシークレット 退会uot;1.5°C targetカジノシークレット 退会uot; beyond a mere non-binding target.
23. The カジノシークレット 退会uot;5th Strategic Energy Planカジノシークレット 退会uot; mentions that Japan will start by focusing all of its efforts on the steady realization of the 2030 energy mix. For 2050, the Plan shows the directions to pursue an ambitious multiple track scenario and possibilities in all options since there is plenty of uncertainty in the process of energy transition and decarbonization including disruptive technological innovation.